Tipster Picks

Welcome to Tipster Picks!

We all need a bit of help sometimes, and our tipping trio are always on hand to share their wisdom in our games. They are:

  • The MailmanBetter service than De Bruyne
  • The TeacherGiving lessons on a weekly
  • Incognito ProThe best spy since Bielsa

Will you follow their advice, or go your own way?

Ahead of the Football Survivor and Big5 2023/24 season opener this August 12, the tipsters have been mining the data once again:

The Mailman says…

  • My pick: Manchester City will be champions if they win on Sunday, and it will be a shock if they fail to claim their fourth title in a row. They look unstoppable coming into the final game as they are undefeated in the league at home all season, have won eight league games in a row, and have not lost to their opponents West Ham since 2015. The Hammers have nothing to play for and although they beat Luton last time, it was their first win in five games in which they also conceded 15 goals!
  • Potential pick: Chelsea are finishing strongly this season and could claim 5th place and a place in Europe next season with a win against Bournemouth in their final game. The Blues have won their last four league games in a row, scoring 12 times, and have not lost at Stamford Bridge since back in February. Cole Palmer has been a revelation this season and was on the scoresheet again on Wednesday night, equalling Lampard’s best-ever scoring season for Chelsea and is only behind Kane and Mbappe in terms of goals and assists in Europe’s top-5 leagues this season!
  • Risky pick: Manchester United managed to edge a win against Newcastle on Wednesday night, and could be a tempting pick against a struggling Brighton side who lost their mid-week game to Chelsea. However, that was only United’s second win in their last nine league games with their only other victory coming in a hard-fought win over relegated Sheffield United. It has been a difficult season for the Devils and it would not be surprising if they finished their league campaign without a win away at the Amex Stadium.

The Teacher says…

  • My pick:European football next season is still on the line for Chelsea, whereas Bournemouth have nothing to play for at Stamford Bridge. The Cherries have lost three of their last four away games and only three sides have conceded more goals on their travels this season. In contrast, the Blues appear to be ending the season well, last weekend’s win at Forest being their third in a row, Nicolas Jackson scoring in all three.
  • Potential pick: As long as Forest don’t get thrashed here, they’ll be in the Premier League next season but they can do much better than that. The table shows they’ve been the better of these two sides but the underlying data widens the gap. Forest’s expected goals-against figure is almost 11 lower than the number of goals they’ve actually conceded, while Burnley – with just two home wins – have an xG which is better only than Sheffield United’s.
  • Risky pick: Arsenal look very short here. Manchester City’s win at Spurs looks to have decided the title race and while the Gunners will still hope for a miracle at the Etihad, there must be a feeling that their run of 15 wins out of 17 in 2024 has been all for nothing. Everton have won five of their last seven, every victory achieved without conceding. That tight defence – the best outside the top three – could frustrate.

Incognito Pro says…

  • My pick: Arsenal will be going all out on Sunday afternoon to keep their dreams of a title alive. The Gunners have won five consecutive games in the league, scored an impressive 89 goals this season, and lead the way in terms of clean sheets with 18. All they can do is win and hope that City slip up; while their opponents Everton have already secured their survival with their recent run of good form in the league. Arsenal have lost just once in twenty-seven home Premier League games against Everton and will be hoping for another victory to put pressure on City.
  • Potential pick: Nottingham Forest lost their last home game of the season to Chelsea 3-2 but were victorious last time away from home when they beat already relegated Sheffield United 3-1. They face another relegated side in Burnley on Sunday and Forest could mathematically go down, so do have more to play for than their rivals. Burnley have only won twice at home this season, and Forest will see this as a chance to end the season with a statement to show that they belong in the Premier League next season!
  • Risky pick: Bournemouth take on an in-form Chelsea side who will be fighting for European football qualification on Sunday. Meanwhile, The Cherries have lost their two previous games in the league and are comfortably sitting in eleventh place with little to play for. Bournemouth have not been great away from home this season and have only beaten Wolves and Burnley on the road in 2024, while Chelsea have won four league games in a row and are unbeaten in six at home.

Good luck!

Football Picks